Structured analysis
Vlasta Consulting took an assignment to assess the situation with the Client’s trusted high-profile contractor in one of the CIS countries. The situation was still unresolved, so our team had to deal with a notable degree of uncertainty. We collected data from public domain and operative sources, and then undertook a wide range of analytical techniques to assess the target’s business and his position within the state administration. As a result, we developed and tested several hypotheses that made it possible to elaborate further mutually beneficial cooperation between the Client and his contractor.
Challenge / Opportunity
Client had been maintaining business partnership with a politically exposed individual from Eastern Europe who lost his high-profile position on the sidelines of an international incident that he may have or may have not been involved in.
Our team had to evaluate whether both events were connected to each other, and if they were, what consequences it could imply for the individual's business. The course of investigation was split into three lines of inquiry to obtain sufficient evidence.
The first one included comprehensive evaluation of his business group as of a few years prior to the dismissal and afterwards, with following comparison of the two datasets. The second one ensued approaches to well-placed sources both in the business circles and upper echelons of power to gain reputational information. Third, a content analysis was employed to parse media sources about the individual, his business, and the situation it found itself in.
After that, the team aggregated evidence to build up a risk matrix representing four outcomes corresponding with each elaborated hypothesis. As a result of competitive hypotheses testing, it became possible to enhance conclusions made with help of open data and HUMINT research and develop appropriate tactics for the Client.
The client became aware that the individual was not actually involved in the controversy. His dismissal was not related to deterioration of his connections with the authorities. The client was advised to keep on his cooperation with this individual. In order to reduce risks, the team designed tactics to gradually scale down this partnership, it monitoring of the situation would have revealed new points of concern.